نشریه آینده پژوهی دفاعی
پیاپی 21 (تابستان 1400)

Defense organizations need intelligence to increase their preparedness and agility in the face of various threats and consequences, especially in cases where an event leads to a series of different consequences. One of these intelligent cases is knowing the amount of changes and variables of interest to the organization due to the occurrence of various events. In these cases, awareness of these changes provides managers with appropriate planning to reduce them. There are various methods for scenario analysis and causal chain analysis in the literature that have their strengths and weaknesses. In this study, a scenario analysis framework based on the  R.Graph  and TOPSIS methods was presented to investigate the effects of Coronavirus on the Air Force  Army of the Islamic Republic of Iran (NAHAJA). The results show that due to the Coronavirus the most important among the variables is related to the factor of disruption in skill-based training and the least importance belongs to the total cost variable. Based on these results, decision-makers can establish appropriate policies to reduce these consequences.

The issue of decision-making in an international negotiation is always one of the concerns of statesmen, officials and diplomats, because the wrong decision of a diplomat leads to failure in the negotiation. Game theory, which has attracted the attention of experts in various sciences, including political science, tries to make the best decisions in the decision-making and policy-making cycle on major issues to make decisions more rational and useful. In particular, the negotiations that are taking place today in the field of international relations can be examined on the basis of game theory and an agreement can be reached. In this research, we simulate the general process of a negotiation between the two countries with the help of game theory. Simply put, we simulate the actual process of a negotiation using a set of mathematical methods, models, and tools. In this regard, we classify negotiation into four stages: preparation for negotiation, exchange of proposals, reaching an agreement, and ending the negotiation. We model the preparation phase for the negotiation using finite game models and provide algebraic methods for calculating dominant performance and Nash equilibrium. According to the results of the first step, we model the exchange of suggestions with the help of dynamic game tree model. In the third stage, by solving tree models with the backward induction, we obtain the optimal strategies of the players. At the end of the negotiation, we will examine the conditions for reaching an agreement. Finally, a decision-making process in a negotiation is presented.

The aim of this paper is to mathematically model the problem of identifying the enemy traversal path in ground defense. By solving the proposed model, the best solution is given to help the commanders of the ground unit to prevent the transfer of enemy forces and equipment. This can be considered as a subject of a war game involving two players. The first player tries to move his forces towards a specific target, and the second player tries to inspect different areas by aircraft, drones, ground forces, etc. in order to identify the enemy. For this problem which is static bayesian game, a mathematical model based on real-world hypotheses is presented. Due to the complexity of the model, a column generation method is presented to solve the model. Finally, the efficiency of the proposed model and the solution method is evaluated using the simulation of the war between Iraq and Kuwait. The results show that the use of this mathematical approach has a good effect on the optimal use of equipment to identify the enemy.

Experts predict that with the current trend, Covid-19 will not be the last epidemic of a viral infectious disease, but a warning sign for future dangerous epidemics. One of the most important facilities of any country to manage biological crisis, is the Armed Forces. Accordingly, the aim of the present study is to study the role of military logistics in the management of future viral biological crises and to extract its improvement factors in an exploratory approach. The research method is the mixed method (Meta-synthesis - Fuzzy Delphi). The statistical population in the first stage was articles related to the research topic and 16 articles were selected, and in the second stage, 20 experts that were available selected as a sample. Based on the results of the meta-synthesis stage, Factors improving military logistics performance in viral epidemic crisis management determined in four components including logistics organization development, strengthening supply chain potential, specialized scientific development in epidemiology and biological warfare and explaining civilian defense governance in chain management Supply, Also military logistics applications in crisis management were extracted in two components including government support in crisis management and humanitarian emergency aid and necessity of using military logistics in crisis management extracted  in two components including agility of rescue operations and logistics potential. In the fuzzy Delphi stage, according to experts, five indicators and a new component entitled "Regional Bio-defense Operation Plan" were added to "Logistics performance improvement factors". Also five indicators and the "Explaining the position of governance" component were removed.

Many technologies designed in the military sector can be used in civilian sector as well. The spillover of military technologies to civil has many positive consequences at the national, commercial and defense levels. The purpose of this study is to identify the factors affecting the spillover of military technologies to civilian via a model. The research is of mixed type (qualitative-quantitative). The statistical sample of the research in the qualitative section is 17 experts in the field of defense and commercial businesses in the country who have been selected by the method of snowball until theoretical saturation. The statistical sample in the quantitative section is 177 managers and experts in these two fields who were selected by purposive and available sampling. In order to identify the effective factors, the approach based on grounded theory and software MAXQDA-2020 was used and finally the validation of the obtained model was performed by factor analysis and software SMART PLS-3. According to the research findings in the qualitative section, 148 codes were identified in the form of 7 categories and after confirmatory factor analysis, 5 codes were deleted and the final research model was approved with 143 codes and 7 categories. The results of grounded theory regarding the frequency and importance of categories of military technology spillover to civilian, show that policies and regulations, communication factors between military and civil sectors, technological capability, environmental factors, socio-cultural factors, economic and financial factors, and technological features are the most important.

In the face of cultural invasion, lack of sufficient knowledge of the nature and dimensions of cultural invasion It has been a major challenge in various sectors, especially the military And lack of insight and deep knowledge of this issue in such sensitive and important organizations, causes To the organization in adopting countermeasures as well as formulating programs to counter the cultural invasion of the enemy Do not have a proper approach. The purpose of this study is to develop AJA cultural defense strategies against cultural aggression.The type of research is applied and its approach is mixed (quantitative-qualitative) because in addition to qualitative analysis of theoretical foundations, a researcher-made questionnaire has also been used. The method of conducting research is contextual-case. In order to formulate strategies, the destination-goal-strategy (GOS) method has been used. Participants in the qualitative part of the research included 18 experts in the field of AJA culture and the statistical community. In a small part, it includes cultural activists at the AJA level Using Cochran's sample formula, there are 135 people. In order to collect information, library and field methods including semi-structured interviews and questionnaires were used. To analyze data from fuzzy Delphi method. The fuzzy Delphi method has been exploited using MATLAB software. Finally, 16 cultural defense strategies were counted along with the implementation requirements of each strategy.